Donald Trump and tariffs: implications for Africa

Trump, Tariffs, and the Threat of a Self-Inflicted Stagflation: Lessons for Africa

Ask almost any economist today and they will tell you:  U.S. President Donald Trump was running major risks with the world’s largest economy. His tariffs, and crackdown on immigration created a climate of uncertainty. Some analysts even warned of a return to the dreaded “stagflation” of the 1970s—a toxic mix of stagnant growth and rising inflation.

Back then, stagflation was triggered by a sudden oil shock. This time, critics feared the crisis could be self-inflicted, born out of protectionist policies and restrictive trade measures.

Why Does This Matter to Africa?

At first glance, the decisions of a U.S. president may seem far removed from the daily struggles of Africans. But in a globalized economy, America sneezes and the rest of the world catches a cold. Tariffs and trade standoffs disrupt global supply chains, increase the cost of imported goods, and slow down investment flows—effects that ripple across emerging economies like countries in Africa.

For Africa, the risks were clear:

Rising Import Costs: Many African countries depend heavily on imports of machinery, technology, and finished goods. A U.S.-China trade standoff  drives up prices globally.

Falling Commodity Demand: If the U.S. economy slows down, its demand for Africa’s raw materials also falls. Oil exporters like Nigeria and Angola feel the heat first.

Investment Uncertainty: Global investors typically run from risky markets in times of instability, which means less capital flowing into Africa’s growing economies.

Africa’s Own Stagflation Woes

Interestingly, Africa has faced its own versions of stagflation. Nigeria in the 1980s saw oil price shocks cripple growth while inflation soared. Zimbabwe has lived through hyperinflation and stagnation. Today, many African economies still struggle with rising prices alongside sluggish growth—especially when poor policies combine with external shocks.

The Lesson for African Leaders

Trump’s tariffs teach Africa a crucial lesson: policy choices matter. Protectionist policies, weak immigration frameworks, or poorly designed economic reforms can backfire, hurting the very people they were meant to protect.

African leaders must avoid repeating mistakes of insularity and poor policy design. Instead, they should:

Diversify economies beyond raw commodities.

Strengthen intra-African trade under the AfCFTA.

Adopt consistent, transparent policies that inspire investor confidence.

Conclusion 

America may have survived Trump’s economic experiments, but Africa cannot afford similar gambles. For a continent still climbing out of debt, unemployment, and poverty, the margin for error is slim. The Trump era reminds us that even the strongest economies are vulnerable to poor decisions—and Africa must take note.