Foxxymobile Street Insider | FCMB’s Final Lap

 Foxxymobile Street Insider | FCMB’s Final Lap

Ticker: FCMB (₦10.8, –3.7%)
Market Cap: ₦427.7bn | Board: Main

Winners (Profit Momentum + Value Play)

Earnings Beat Machine:

Q1 forecast ₦31.2bn → delivered ₦32.2bn.

Q2 forecast ₦36.6bn → delivered ₦41.1bn.

Q3 forecast ₦39.3bn (awaiting print).

Q4 projection ₦58.8bn — if hit, FY25 PAT = ₦171.5bn (vs ₦73bn FY24).

Valuation Edge:

EPS 2025 est. ₦4.30.

Current P/E ~2.4x vs NGX Banking Index 3x–5x.

Translation: FCMB is trading cheap for the growth on deck.

Operational Resilience: Absorbed ₦36.2bn write-down from CBN’s forbearance expiry and still beat profit guides.

Losers (Short-Term Dilution + Recap Stress)

Capital Raise Needed: Needs ~₦188bn more to meet CBN recap threshold. Last year’s ₦144.6bn …
[11:35 am, 14/09/2025] Foxxymobile Software  (Information Technology), Logistics/ haulage: Perfect — let’s spin this into a Foxxymobile Street Insider punch-up with that fast-scroll, Winners vs Losers cut, tuned for your network 👇
[11:51 am, 14/09/2025] Foxxymobile Software  (Information Technology), Logistics/ haulage: Foxxymobile Street Insider | eTranzact’s 45% Surge

Ticker: ETRANZACT (₦14.95, +9.93%)
Market Cap: ₦137.5bn | Sector: ICT (Processing Systems)

Winners (Momentum + Fundamentals)

Weekly Rocket: ₦10.30 → ₦14.95 in just 5 sessions (+45.1%).

52-Week Breakout: Smashed resistance at ₦10 (held since 2023). Now sitting at a fresh ₦14.95 all-time high.

Government Catalyst: Approved by FIRS for nationwide e-invoicing rollout, building on VAT automation (Tax Admin 2.0). Institutional credibility boost.

Earnings Edge:

H1’25 pretax profit ₦2.1bn (+18.3% YoY).

Gross margin widened as cost of sales collapsed (₦9.4bn → ₦6.8bn).

Operating profit +20%, despite higher admin expenses.

Shareholder Greenlight: AGM (July 24) approved up to ₦100bn capital raise (rights, placement, or debt). Balance sheet firepower incoming.

Losers (Risks + Overhangs)

Revenue Dip: H1 revenue softened ₦14bn → ₦13.2bn. Profit growth came mostly from cost cuts — sustainability?

Dilution Risk: ₦100bn raise still to be executed. Fresh shares could water down current holders if priced low.

Speculative Surge: Weekly volume 6.3m shares (vs thin floats earlier). Momentum traders may bail fast.

Q1 Weakness Reminder: Stock was down –11% by March before the Q3 breakout. Volatility is baked in.

Foxxymobile Insider Take

Winner’s Lens: Market finally pricing eTranzact as a serious fintech + govtech play. Margin expansion + FIRS nod is a rare combo.

Loser’s Lens: Revenue softness + looming ₦100bn raise = hangover risk if sentiment cools.

Street Read: Right now, this is momentum with a catalyst. Strong fundamentals keep it legit, but the ride may be choppy until the capital raise clears.

Foxxymobile Call: eTranzact just turned the corner from fintech struggler → fintech breakout. Short-term, momentum is king. Medium-term, execution on scaling revenue + clean capital raise will decide if ₦14.95 is a launchpad or a peak.